What We Learned From Week 11 of the 2013 NFL Season

By J-Dub and Meehan

Up until now, we’ve been consulting our medical expert Dr. Kelly Brackett for his prognoses on NFL teams. But now that we are clearly in the homestretch, it’s time to shift our focus from the survivors and the casualties to an analysis of the survival of the fittest. That means we change our expert as well; rather than looking for overall health, this becomes an exercise in actuarials…or to make it sound less insurance-like..it’s time to look at the odds of each possible contender making the play-offs.  For that, we have invited legendary movie odds-maker Sam “Ace” Rothstein for his thoughts.

sam rothstein

AFC:

1) Indianapolis Colts (7-3)

Remaining Games:

  • @Arizona
  • Tennessee
  • @Cincinnati
  • Houston
  • @Kansas City
  • Jacksonville

Odds of Making Play-offs:

Metaphysical certainty. Steal as much money as you can get your hands on, then bet twice that much that Indianapolis will be in the play-offs.

Key Facts:

With six games to go, the Colts have a three-game lead in the AFC South over their closest competitor, and they just beat them on the road with a dramatic comeback victory.The Colts will make the playoffs because no one else in the AFC South will step up and challenge them.  The Titans are in second place, and the other two teams might as well be Terri Schiavo two days after they yanked her feeding tube.  They’ve already beaten Seattle, San Francisco, and the Broncos, and by the time they get to the Kansas City Chiefs, both teams could be just resting up for January.

2a) Kansas City Chiefs (9-1)

Remaining Games:

  • San Diego
  • Denver
  • @Washington
  • @Oakland
  • Indianapolis
  • @San Diego

Odds of Making Play-offs:

Higher than those of the Carrie Underwood remake of “The Sound of Music” sucking the balls of a dog sucking another dog’s balls. “Them hills is alive y’all with the seeeeoooound o’ moooosic”…(two-minute steel guitar solo complete with the Von Trapp kids doing the “Boot-Scootin’ Boogie.”)

Key Facts:

There’s nothing wrong with the Chiefs.  Don’t let the Sunday Night loss to the Broncos fool you; the Chiefs are still really good.  Consider this: they are under the guidance of a man in Andy Reid who in less than a year and a half’s time had his son die of a heroin overdose, get fired by the team he coached for well over a decade, get rehired by a 2-14 franchise that had a guy blow his head off at the team’s practice facility, and turn that team into one who won its first nine games of the very next season.

Fuck rebuilding.  That’s instant gratification for a franchise that desperately needed it.

Now the Chiefs haven’t exactly won any of their games in commanding fashion (with the exception of the Giants and Jaguars) but they don’t need to. They run an offense that’s more conservative than Ann Coulter holding a banjo at the Country Music Awards, and as long as they can keep it working they are in good shape.  They will get this loss back in a few week when Denver has to come to Arrowhead. Then it will just be a matter of who has the tie-breakers, because both Kansas City and Denver have a lot of “easy” games left.

2b) Denver Broncos (9-1)

Remaining Games:

  • @New England
  • @Kansas City
  • Tennessee
  • San Diego
  • @Houston
  • @Oakland

Odds of Making Play-offs:

The odds that the Broncos won’t make the playoffs are the same as Vanilla Ice having a Number One hit song by February.

Key Facts:

The Broncos made very quick use of the Chiefs on Sunday Night Football, assuring the country that when it comes to control Peyton Manning knows it like no other player in the game today.  Against a very good Chiefs defense, he was able to still put up over 300 yards because he’s really that good.  Is it a little unsettling that they’re secondary is ranked 30th overall?  Of course it is.  But as so many Super Bowl caliber teams have shown us before, defense doesn’t really matter until the 4th quarter of the Super Bowl anyway.

In a lot of ways, this is just the reverse of what we said about the Chiefs. If the Broncos can manage to win in Kansas City in a few weeks, then all bets are off; the Chiefs will be a wild-card team. If not, anything is possible.  Even thought the Broncos defense looked much better on Sunday, they still have to a ways to go to make this team a serious contender for a title. There’s also the obvious issue of Peyton Manniong’s health, who we are convinced is more beat up than anybody wants to admit.

3) New England Patriots (7-3)

Remaining Games:

  • Denver
  • @Houston
  • Cleveland
  • @Miami
  • @Baltimore
  • Buffalo

Odds of Making Play-offs:

Pretty good, given how much cock every other team in the AFC East is currently swallowing.

Key Facts:

The fact that the Jets, Bills, and, Dolphins are all dumpster fires of the first order will be enough to mask the fact that…wait for it…we’ve been saying it all year…the Patriots aren’t that good. First of all, last night in Carolina only proved again this team can’t beat a “good” team away from Foxboro.  And while Patriots fans will spend all morning bleating about that non-call to end last night’s game , they will completely ignore the fact the number of miracles Tom Brady can pull off to keep this team relevant is finite, largely because the New England defense can’t stop the run at all.  Imagine what would happen if the Patriots had to face a team like the Seahawks? Marshawn Lynch would be lining his living room walls with Patriot scalps, and he’d make Bill Belichick’s wife hold his coat while he did it.

The fact is New England will make the play-offs, and will be done the minute they go on the road.

4) Cincinnati Bengals (7-4)

Remaining Games:

  • @San Diego
  • Indianapolis
  • @Pittsburgh
  • Minnesota
  • Baltimore

Odds of Making Play-offs:

Who else in the AFC North can make it to January?

Key Facts:

The Bengals could be the team like the hooker you find out is a transvestite just a moment too late, because there’s really no way to tell if they can be a dominant team or not. There are times they seriously pass the eye test, like when they beat up on the Patriots, the Packers, and the Lions. Then there are times they look like a MAC team, like when they are getting it prison-style from the likes of the Browns, the Ravens, the Bears, and the Dolphins. The good news for Cincinnati is there is no way the Houston Texans will be a factor come January, which means the Bengals actually might be able to rack up a win or two before they find a way to come up short of the Super Bowl.

5) New York Jets (5-5)

Remaining Games:

  • @Baltimore
  • Miami
  • Oakland
  • @Carolina
  • Cleveland
  • @Miami

Odds of Making Play-offs:

Better than anybody really wants to admit

Key Facts:

Here’s comes a phrase that makes J-Dub’s eyes bleed battery acid: “If the play-offs started today…”  Well, if they did, the New York Jets are your #2 Wild-Card team. Come to terms with that fact.  The problem here stems from the fact the average dimwit NFL fans assumes that play-off teams have to be good. This year’s version of the AFC blows that theory higher Hiroshima main-lining pure heroin. Even the “good” teams in the AFC could be complete “smoke and mirror” jobs because they’ve either gotten fat against the NFC East or the plethora of AFC bottom-feeders out there.

The weird thing about the New York Jets is that they define inconsistency and consistency at the same time. They are the first team in NFL history to alternate wins and losses every week through their first ten games. They can be good, they can be bad, and they can do it in a predictable pattern. When they win, they get reasonable play from Geno Smith and the defense gives that lackluster offense every chance to stay in the game.  When they lose, it can get uglier than 70-year-old drag queen French-kissing a schnauzer; two of their five losses have been absolute blowouts suffered at the not-so-mighty hands of the Titans and the Bills.

To make the analogy to your work, the Jets are the new guy at your office who kicks major ass at everything he does, and just about the time you think he is going to get promoted, he gets caught deep-throating the  plunger handle in the men’s room.  Remember when Forrest Gump said “You never know what you’re going to get?”  You know Forrest Gump was a typical Jets fan; a retard with a bad haircut waiting for a bus who just happens to know that shit is about to get worse. Because for the Jets, it somehow always does. to put you on alert that they are about to take a turn for the worst. Because in reality, that’s already started happening.

Oddly enough, that is the difference between a Jets fan and a Patriots fan. Patriots fans just don’t see it coming.

6) Miami Dolphins (5-5)

Remaining Games:

  • Carolina
  • @New York Jets
  • @Pittsburgh
  • New England
  • @Buffalo
  • New York Jets

Odds of Making Play-offs: 

Identical to those of Elton John hiring Richie Incognito to do stand-up as an opening act for his next stadium tour.

Key Facts:

The problem in Miami is more than the handjob clusterfuck the media has been feeding us over bullying in the NFL.   The Dolphins on-the-field problem is their inability to get behind Ryan Tannehill and create any sort of offensive structure. After starting 3-0 and making all the preseason love they were getting seem justified, they have slowly turned into the artist formerly known as relevant. The same team that granted the Buccaneers their first win is not the same team that went to Lucas Oil Stadium in Week Two and beat the Colts.

NFC:

1) Seattle Seahawks (10-1)

Remaining Games:

  • New Orleans
  • @San Francisco
  • @New York Giants
  • Arizona
  • St. Louis

Odds of Making Play-offs: 

Remember what we said about the Colts? Well, combine those odds with the fact the next Pope will be Catholic and the next team to win the Soccer World Cup will be wearing shorts,  and you get the idea.

Key Facts:

The Seahawks have a four-game overall lead and a three-game divisional lead over San Francisco.  While their first two games coming up could be street fights better choreographed than “West Side Story”  and Michael Jackson’s “Beat It” combined, to wrap up they also have three games more win-able than church hall bingo.  Not to mention, they could also be on cruise control by the time they get to the Arizona game, who just might be keeping the Bee Gees’ “Staying Alive” on a loop on their I-pods by then. On top of all that, Seattle has a late bye, which means they can rest up and let the offensive line and Skittles-fed beast Marshawn Lynch heal up and be even more brutal down the stretch.

What it all boils down to is Seattle isn’t fucking around anymore. This is the best start the franchise has ever had, and Russell Wilson is starting to show that he is a leader which is the last piece of the puzzle. They can run the ball, their secondary is literally terrorizing opposing receivers, and while J-Dub is on record saying Percy Harvin doesn’t really matter, Meehan thinks they are getting him back for the most important portion of the season.

To prove they aren’t fucking around anymore, Seattle has already paid league officials to ensure any more positive urine samples get “lost.”

2) New Orleans Saints (8-2)

Remaining Games:

  • @Atlanta
  • @Seattle
  • Carolina
  • @St. Louis
  • @Carolina
  • Tampa Bay

Odds of Making Play-offs: 

As good as the fact that if the Saints go deep into the play-offs, we will hear even more “Hurricane Katrina” references eight fucking years after the fact.

Key Facts:

Realistically, the Saints are only in competition with two other NFC teams at the moment: The Seattle Seahawks and the New Orleans Saints. That means that half of the teams in the NFC right now that can actually beat the Saints are in their own locker room.  That’s just a fancy way of saying the Saints can easily beat themselves.  For as good as they are, they need to avoid giving up big plays and learn how to stop the run.

3) Detroit Lions (6-4)

Remaining Games:

  • Tampa Bay
  • Green Bay
  • @Philadelphia
  • Baltimore
  • New York Giants
  • @Minnesota

Odds of Making Play-offs:

Not very good if they play anywhere near as poorly as they did in the second half of the Pittsburgh game.

Key Facts:

We can’t believe this…We thought the Lions were just as hot as anybody in the league, and then Sunday happened.  Maybe the Lions are just as “Jekyll and Hyde” as their quarterback. Sometimes, Matthew Stafford looks like a top-flight NFL quarterback, and other times, he looks like a guy who couldn’t pass the cranberry sauce at Thanksgiving. Sometimes, he looks like a guy who can lead a team all the way to death-gripping the Lombardi Trophy, and other times he looks like he couldn’t lead a pack of wolves to fresh meat. How else do you explain a guy who throws for 327 yards in the first half of a game, but finishes 19 for 46?

4) San Francisco 49ers (6-4)

Remaining Games:

  • @Washington
  • St. Louis
  • Seattle
  • @Tampa Bay
  • Atlanta
  • @Arizona

Odds of Making Play-offs:  

Definitely a lot worse than they were two weeks ago when they were 6-2 and it looked like they had second place in the NFC West in the bag.

Key Facts:

The 49ers have lost two straight games. Granted, they were losses to good teams, but that’s precisely why they need to be worried. Whenever they have to play someone who knows what they’re doing, they seem to bite  down on it hard, and that’s a guaranteed recipe for a first-round playoff exit.  In the NFL, contrary to popular belief, strength of schedule is like your appendix, whereas as in college football it is your heart, lungs, brain, liver, and 72.9% of your penis.   That means while the Lions choking on it this past weekend certainly helps the 49ers for now, it won’t mean dick if they keep losing, because the bottom line in the NFL is wins.

5) Carolina Panthers (6-3)

Remaining Games:

  • @Miami
  • Tampa Bay
  • @New Orleans
  • New York Jets
  • New Orleans
  • @Atlanta

Odds of Making Play-offs: 

The same as the odds that Kathie Lee Gifford is only upset about the typhoon disaster in the Philippines because it fucked up her plans to build another third-world sweatshop for Wal-Mart.

Key Facts:

The Panthers have surprised everyone with their sharp play and supreme defensive skills, but shit is about to get real for them. They still have to play New Orleans twice, and they really need to win one of them. Last night’s win over New England is a step in the right direction, but now they have to show they can beat one of the NFL’s big boys.  Not to mention, the middle of the pack in the NFC is a bigger mess than the inside of Tony Siragusa’s pee-pad, which means the Panthers can pop out of the play-offs just as easily as they have Astroglided their way in.

6a) Philadelphia Eagles (6-5)

Remaining Games:

  • Arizona
  • Detroit
  • @Minnesota
  • Chicago
  • @Dallas

Odds of Making Play-offs:

Exactly the same as the Dallas Cowboys, meaning of these two teams has to get in, and the other gets to go home. It’s that simple.

Key Facts:

The resurrection of the Eagles is nothing short of a result of an outbreak of the zombie virus. we had given them up for dead a long time ago, and yet, here they are with the inside rail to the division crown.  A lot of that is due to the play of Nick Foles, but we all know as soon as Mr. Dog Murderer gets healthy, Chip Kelly is going to bench Foles.  This will mark the stupidest move in NFL history since the Minnesota Vikings made the Herschel Walker trade.

Of course the logic for putting “Puppy Chow” Vick back on the controls of the Eagle offense is that you can’t have a $100 million backup quarterback. Fuck that noise, because that is just p[ropagating yet another bad decision in what has been a series of them. Let’s not forget the only reason Vick ever got the starting job was because Clay Matthews turned  Kevin Kolb into lawn mulch on Opening Day 2010. Let’s also not forget that Vick got that stupid huge contract based largely on that ridiculous 74-touchdown performance against the Redskins. Let’s also not forget that Vick has been either hurt or exceptionally mediocre since then.

Oh, did I mention that “MilkBone” is 32 years old? The NFL might as well be Logan’s Run for “running quarterbacks” Foles is the future, and to be honest, anything that happens from here on out in chip Kelly’s first season is gravy.

6b) Dallas Cowboys (5-5)

Remaining Games:

  • @New York Giants
  • Oakland
  • @Chicago
  • Green Bay
  • @Washington
  • Philadelphia

Odds of Making Play-offs:

Exactly the same as the Philadelphia Eagles, meaning of these two teams has to get in, and the other gets to go home. This could be like watching a kick-boxing match between Stephen Hawking and Corky from “Life Goes On.”

Key Facts:

There’s no reason to beat around the bush here, whether or not the Dallas Cowboys will make the playoffs is solely dependent on how well Philadelphia plays the rest of the season, which means the future of the Dallas Cowboys could really depend solely on whether or not Chip Kelly makes the “Michael Vick” mistake. The Cowboys’ secondary is a maxi-pad in a league full of tampons, and whatever your take is on the whole Dez Bryant situation, you have to admit it’s pretty fucking embarrassing that they can’t get him the football.  We’d mention their running game, but it isn’t visiting hours at the hospital where they somehow keep DeMarco Murray alive.

7) Arizona Cardinals (6-4)

Remaining Games:

  • Indianapolis
  • @Philadelphia
  • St. Louis
  • @Tennessee
  • @Seattle
  • San Francisco

Odds of Making Play-offs:

Roughly equal to that of a cure for AIDS being discovered by the time you get done reading this sentence. Oops, too late!

Key Facts:

It’s really sad that it won’t happen. Seriously, nothing would make us happier than the Arizona Cardinals dumping the entire sports journalism world on its head by getting into the play-offs. Ten weeks ago, nobody would bother to give them the time of day on one those 1980’s Casio nerd watches, and now it may legitimately come down to a winner-take-all for a wild-card spot in week 17 with the 49ers. That isn’t likely, because the Cardinmals still have to win through a remaining schedule featuring the Colts, Eagles, and Seahawks before they get to the 49ers.

The trouble is that the Arizona miracle just can’t last. Even if Carson Palmer continues to win his career-long battle with the interception, the bottom line is the Cardinals just don’t have the ponies to finish this race.

8) Chicago Bears (6-4)

Remaining Games:

  • @St. Louis
  • @Minnesota
  • Dallas
  • @Cleveland
  • @Philadelphia
  • Green Bay

Odds of Making Play-offs

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Key Facts:

So the Bears beat the Ravens; a defending Super Bowl champion which has basically eroded into a team that won’t see the play-offs again this decade. Baltimore is a team missing its key framework from last year’s Lombardi Trophy win, and after all that, the Bears struggled to beat them at home in a veritable monsoon. The Bears are simply not very good, and yet the Chicago sports media seems happy to be providing them with rimjobs on demand.

The important thing to remember about the Bears is that it doesn’t matter who is the quarterback, they just aren’t a championship football team. They don’t have the heart, and they don’t have enough working pieces to make that happen. If they make the play-offs, we can guarantee you they lose on Wild Card weekend.  If you are dumb enough to think any different, you should stop reading this article right now and go out to your garage and drink all of the gasoline out of your lawn mower.

9) Green Bay Packers (5-5)

Remaining Games:

  • Minnesota
  • @Detroit
  • Atlanta
  • @Dallas
  • Pittsburgh
  • @Chicago

Odds of Making Play-offs:

Roughly the same as Bill O’Reilly quitting his talk show to replace Jeff Hanneman as Slayer’s second guitarist.

Key Facts:

In the same way that the lead singer of that band will look like a sheepdog until the day he dies, the Green Bay Packers crawled up into a ball and waited for their heart to stop beating the second Aaron Rodgers got knocked out of the Chicago game. Since then they’ve been led by Seneca Wallace, and some guy named Scott Tolzien who we think used to be a “sandwich artist” as Subway. The big issue here is that without their leader, they have crumbled and it’s easy to see that they can’t defend the passing game of 70%of the league’s teams and can’t tackle for shit. The only good news here is that we won’t be talking about the Packers in a couple of weeks because they will be out of the hunt completely.

Key Fact:

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2 Comments

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2 responses to “What We Learned From Week 11 of the 2013 NFL Season

  1. Pingback: What We Learned From Week 12 of the 2013 NFL Season – Time For You To Vote On Our Poll Questions | Sports Blog Movement

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