2013 MLB Preview. Show me the Math.

Baseball is a simple game. Playing it professionally is not. Like checkers it is easy to learn, but nearly impossible to master. The subtleties of the game at the professional level are so convoluted that it has spawned an algebraic discipline to try and explain it. Despite our sincerest attempts to distill this simple game into predictable chunks, the simplistic and random nature of the game eludes us.

It’s also what makes the game so intriguing.  If anyone actually succeeded in predicting the outcome with any regularity the whole thing would become a dinosaur within weeks. That of course never stops us from trying. So much of the game is decided by things that can never be known ahead of time. Not just injuries, but weather. Overcast days allow hitters to be able to pick up the rotation of the ball out of the pitchers hand easier. Days with intense sunshine make the ball seem like a solid white orb without seams. Rainy seasons favor pitchers, while hot and humid seasons favor the hitters. What’s the weather going to be like during July in Southern California? Nobody knows that of course, and with nearly a half a Billion dollars being spent on baseball within a 60 mile radius of Riverside, it’s entirely possible that the weather in Southern California will be the most influential things in the 2013 Major League Baseball season.

Well, that and the $430 million dollars of course.

(read the rest here.)

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